“Have you ever watched Gladiator 2?”
This isn’t the typical question you expect to hear from an economist during a presentation titled, “Inflection Points in Commercial Real Estate and the U.S. Economy.”
Yet that’s exactly what the charismatic keynote speaker Victor Calanog, Ph.D., CRE, FRICS, managing director and global co-head of research and strategy at Manulife Investment Management, asked the audience on Wednesday, April 22, 2026, at Commonwealth’s 15th Annual Commercial Real Estate Forum.
Calanog was discussing the impact the U.S. economy has on a global scale, likening its influence to the Roman Empire in its heyday—but even larger. “Years from now, they will definitely be making movies about the U.S.,” joked Calanog, an apparent Russell Crowe fan.
And Richmond? “Richmond is actually looking pretty swoll.”
A New Commonwealth
Before Calanog took the stage, Commonwealth President Ken Strickler welcomed the 200+ attendees by unveiling the company’s new brand identity in celebration of 30 years in business. The new identity, ‘Commonwealth,’ unifies all commercial real estate offerings under the same name.
“When Mark Claud founded our company, he envisioned this becoming bigger than any one person,” said Strickler. “Thanks to our new company structure and website, it’s now easier for clients to access our full breadth of capabilities.”
State of the Economy
In his keynote, Calanog shared insights about the state of the economy today and the kinds of implications it might have on commercial real estate at the local level. He opened the discussion with the topic of uncertainty, saying both the national and global uncertainty index is creeping up to 2020 levels due to global events like the conflict in the Middle East.
“What better way to spice things up than to talk about how anxious we all are in terms of uncertainty?” said Calanog. He pointed out that central banks are doing exactly what they need to right now to try and avoid a recession: keep everyone guessing.
“This current Fed is very data driven,” said Calanog. “I think they’re going to pause [rate changes] for now.”
Calanog shared his “canary in a coalmine” for recession prediction, which is entirely focused on job numbers. He says if the jobs market is negative for one month, there is a 50% chance we are already in a recession. Two months? That number jumps to 85%. As of the Forum date, Calanog predicts there is about a 44% chance that the U.S. will find itself in a recession in the next 12 months.
Looking at the commercial real estate markets, Calanog had these numbers to share:
- Multifamily – Vacancy is high, with Richmond numbers slightly higher than the national average. In general, Richmond is digesting a large amount of new supply that came available starting around 2023.
- Industrial – Vacancy rate is lower in Richmond than the U.S. average at about 5.7%.
- Retail – Vacancy rate is higher in Richmond at about 4.8%, with a lot of retail properties having been demolished around 2023.
- Office – Doing much better in Richmond than nationally. A sub-10% vacancy rate in office today is incredible, and Richmond sits at about 8%.
Calanog said that by-and-large, most economic indicators suggest that Richmond is a net contributor on the national scale. He predicts that, despite local home prices rising at a faster rate in Richmond than the national average, the area will continue to fare better than other MSAs, with an average annual GDP growth rate of over 2%.
On the Local Level
Following Calanog’s discussion, Commonwealth introduced a panel of Central Virginia financial and real estate experts to bring Calanog’s macro assessments down to the micro level in Richmond.
John Mercer, real estate attorney and Partner with Williams Mullen, moderated the discussion between Matt Ohlschlager (First Vice President, Director of Residential A&D and Builder Line Credit, C&F Bank) and Commonwealth’s own Ben Bruni (Senior Vice President & Partner) and Dan Pedrazzi (Vice President of Finance).
After discussing Calanog’s predictions, each panelist shared a nugget of information they are noticing in their day-to-day that others might not be aware of:
- Matt Ohlschlager: “We’re seeing more [residential] mortgage rates above 6% now than below 3%. People talk about being locked into their house, and I do think that’s going to thaw.”
- Dan Pedrazzi: “I think the value-added office is making a comeback; we’re seeing a lot of leasing activity, smaller spaces overall but very active.”
- Ben Bruni: “With the lack of supply we have right now and demand we’re seeing, I think we’re going to see a lot more build-to-suit occurring.”
Thank you to the commercial real estate and business community who joined for an afternoon of education and networking. Thank you to Victor Calanog for sharing his insights, and to our sponsors for making this incredible event possible: ARCO Design/Build | Bowman Consulting | C&F Bank | CoStar Group | Keiter | Kensington Vanguard | Scott Insurance | Specified Tile & Floor Covering | Williams Mullen.
